By ROBIN GRIFFITHS DEBORAH OWEN
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Additional info for Mapping the Markets: A Guide to Stockmarket Analysis
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Volume The volume of trading activity in a market provides a useful guide to how much significance can be attached to a buy or sell signal. Any signal on a chart is much stronger for having been triggered by high volume. Rising volume in a trending market (a market that is moving either upwards or downwards, not going sideways) suggests that the bullish or bearish sentiment is being backed by the active participation of a growing number of investors. A new high that occurs against low or falling volume suggests the buying momentum behind the uptrend is on the wane.
Small market capitalisation growth stocks – and, indeed, stock tips generally – have a seductive sway. The level of valuations rises and extreme price/earnings ratios are justified on increasingly tenuous grounds. This is the phase of the cycle when irrational exuberance may set in and bubbles can occur. It is a time of great confidence and excessive optimism. Cassandra-like voices are drowned by promises of “a goldilocks economy”, “the perfect paradigm” and, most treacherous of all, “it is different this time”.
Clinton William J. Clinton George H. W. Bush Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan Jimmy Carter Gerald R. Ford Richard M. Nixon Richard M. 0 Lyndon B. 3 Lyndon B. 6 John Kennedy Dwight D. 9 Interaction between the four-year and ten-year cycles One of the most powerful influences on the four-year cycle is Juglar’s ten-year economic rhythm. Four-year and ten-year cycles do not fit well together, being perfectly in step with each other only every 20 years. Consequently, as the two cycles interact with each other, a complex shape develops giving a different pattern from one decade to the next.