By Herbert W. Hethcote
The disorder that got here to be referred to as received immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was once first pointed out in the summertime of 1981. by means of that point, approximately 100,000 individuals within the usa could have been contaminated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). by the point the routes of transmission have been basically pointed out and HIV used to be proven because the reason behind AIDS in 1983, over 300,000 humans could have been contaminated. That quantity has persisted to extend, with nearly a million american citizens believed to be contaminated in 1991. The epidemic is of significant public future health crisis simply because HlV is infectious, motives serious morbidity and demise in such a lot if no longer all of these contaminated, and sometimes happens in particularly younger folks. additionally, the price of therapy for someone with HIV affliction is excessive, and the therapy wishes of HIV-infected folks position a serious burden at the remedy platforms in lots of components. realizing and controlling the HIV epidemic is a very tricky problem. The lengthy and variable interval among HIV an infection and scientific ailment makes it tough either to forecast the longer term importance of the epidemic, that's vital for wellbeing and fitness care making plans, and to estimate the quantity contaminated within the final a number of years, that's vital for tracking the present prestige of the epidemic.
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Additional info for Modeling HIV Transmission and AIDS in the United States
Example text
In this method each group has a sexual activity level, and the new partners of a person are distributed among the groups in proportion to the activity levels of the groups. Alternatively, a person may be more likely to choose a sexual partner with the same level of sexual activity. 83) in which 20% of the contacts were internal to the activity level groups and 80% were external contacts governed by proportionate mixing. ,1988; Blythe and Castillo-Chavez, 1989). Since data have not been found on mixing patterns in SF, the more general form of mixing is used here.
At least once every few years. This group is subdivided into men who have many different male sex partners (very active) and those who have only a few different partners (active). , 1989; Kaplan and Lee, 1990), the two activity levels used here do not introduce lots of parameters which cannot be estimated and are consistent with the existence of a small fraction of homosexual men who are very active sexually. The mixing structure, sexual activity level and progression to AIDS in a population may depend on the age of the individuals, but there is currently not enough data available to justify the incorporation of age structure into the model; see Busenberg and Castillo--Chavez (1991) for an age--structured mv / AIDS model.
How important are bisexuals and prostitutes in the transmission process? How rapidly does HIV infection spread from high risk groups to low risk groups? Why do AIDS cases in many populations increase initially as a cubic function of time? Hyman and Stanley (1988) suggest that this cubic growth could be explained by the spread of infection from high contact-rate groups down through lower contact-rate groups. Is sustained transmission likely in the heterosexual population with frequent partner changes?