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By Spitz, William; Golaszewski, Richard

Description quantity 1 offers a forecast of expected fleet job linked to the most recent iteration of common Aviation (GA) airplane over a five- and 10-year outlook. This quantity should be of curiosity to airport operators at present serving GA airplane, in addition to those who are contemplating the capability effect of incorporating advertisement carrier which may be supplied by way of Very gentle Jets (VLJs) and different complicated small GA airplane at their airports. utilizing 2007 because the baseline, this Forecast presents five- and 10-year fleet dimension projections for the most recent new release of GA airplane and highlights quite a few fleets and their brands. either conventional GA makes use of in addition to advertisement air taxi makes use of are thought of. as well as fleet estimates, operational task projections through VLJs utilized in advertisement air taxi companies are supplied for over 1,800 U.S. airports. along side the quantity 2 Guidebook, those fleet and task forecasts can be utilized via airport operators to evaluate either the sensible requisites and the leading edge techniques for accommodating those new varieties of GA plane. Airport planners can use this Forecast because the foundation for upgrading present, and growing new airport amenities (along with the companies needed). carrier services and stakeholders considering GA job will locate this Forecast necessary in looking new company possibilities within the foreseeable destiny

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By 2017, the cumulative air taxi VLJ fleet may total more than 1,300, with about half that number added to the air taxi piston fleet. These projections are subject to a large degree of uncertainty, and the forecasts were completed prior to very recent industry developments including the bankruptcies of an important air taxi provider and VLJ manufacturer. The overall level of activity at small airports is not likely to be affected significantly by VLJs that are purchased for traditional GA because their main effect will be a simple displacement of sales that would have gone to other small GA aircraft instead.

Table 17. 0% 2007 Actual *Note: Figures and percentages may not add to totals due to rounding. 22 Table 18. 8 0 751 1,305 706 1,894 2,673 Net Increase 2007-2012 411 13 12 751 1,188 Net Increase 2007-2017 593 31 39 1,305 1,967 *Note: Figures and percentages may not add to totals due to rounding. Table 19. Estimated incremental air taxi operations by region. Region Central Eastern Great Lakes New England Northwestern Mountain Southern Southwestern W estern Pacific Total TAF 2007 Total 2017 Incremental Operations Air Taxi Operations 2,973,922 144,751 8,002,088 418,472 12,556,805 749,353 3,106,122 81,938 8,391,973 252,373 17,920,957 914,709 652,743 10,159,174 11,318,066 936,144 74,429,107 4,150,483 Baseline Air Taxi Fleet Forecast In order to translate the traffic projections into air taxi fleet forecasts, assumptions must be made regarding aircraft use and load factors.

3 h, this works out to approximately 1,200 h of utilization per year for VLJs and 800 h for the other aircraft types. This is well above current utilization rates for small GA aircraft (which are more on the order of a few hundred hours per year), but still only a fraction of the utilization rates typical of large commercial aircraft. 6 It is important to recognize that the actual air taxi fleet projection levels depend heavily on a number of basic assumptions, the most prominent of which are • Definitions of the relevant universe for the automobile and commercial air travel markets; • “Full price of travel” estimates of the various modes, which depend on (among other things) uncertain estimates of the unit costs of providing traditional charter operations, wait and/or delay times associated with commercial air travel, and road congestion associated with automobile travel; • Actual availability of new “per-seat” VLJ services and/or low-cost piston services; and • Perceived similarities or differences between new services and traditional charter services.

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