By Burton G. Malkiel
Okay, so i am not performed with the e-book but, yet i am already irked that i learn the 1st a hundred pages whilst it could possibly simply were condensed into twenty or thirty pages. Soo boring... Get to the beef already!
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Additional info for A random walk down Wall Street: including a life-cycle guide to personal investing
Example text
They’re not out to prove anything. If they were people, they’d be the death of any party. People, on the other hand, are far more interesting. It’s more natural to react emotionally or personalize a problem than it is to dispassionately review broad statistical occurrences—and so much more fun! It’s much more natural for us to look at the limited set of our personal experiences and then generalize from this small sample to create a rule-of-thumb heuristic. We are a bundle of inconsistencies, and although making us interesting, it plays havoc with our ability to successfully invest our money.
The Unreliable Experts: Getting in the Way of Outstanding Performance 15 Robyn Dawes, in his book House of Cards: Psychology and Psychotherapy Built on Myth, tells us more. He refers to Jack Sawyer, a researcher who published a review of 45 studies comparing the two forecasting techniques: In none was the clinical, intuitive method—the one favored by most people—found to be superior. What’s more, Sawyer included instances in which the human judges had more information than the model and were given the results of the quantitative models before being asked for a prediction.
They use information unreliably, one time including a stock in a portfolio and another time excluding it, even though in each instance the information is the same. Our decision-making is systematically flawed because we prefer gut reactions and individual, colorful stories to boring base rates. Base rates are among the most illuminating statistics that exist. They’re just like batting averages. For example, if a town of 100,000 people had 70,000 lawyers and 30,000 librarians, the base rate for lawyers in that town is 70 percent.