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Major, and typically unwelcome, surprises, resembling floods, monetary obstacle, epileptic seizures, or fabric rupture, are the subjects of maximum occasions in Nature and Society. The e-book, authored by way of optimal specialists in those fields, finds unifying and distinguishing beneficial properties of utmost occasions, together with difficulties of knowing and modelling their starting place, spatial and temporal extension, and power influence. The chapters converge in the direction of the tough challenge of anticipation: forecasting the development and offering measures to reasonable or hinder it. severe occasions in Nature and Society will curiosity not just experts, but additionally the overall reader wanting to learn the way the multifaceted box of utmost occasions may be considered as a coherent entire.

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Additional info for Extreme Events in Nature and Society (The Frontiers Collection)

Sample text

The reason we bring it up here is the methodological need to find out the extent to which it predicts the necessary failure of all attempts to anticipate Xevents, or whether it only suggests that we need to consider ways to segment or partition the various aspects of Xevents and concentrate on partial representations (see Fig. 2). 3 Descartes Rehabilitated Seen from this perspective, Descartes’ reductionism and determinism – the foundation of humankind’s enormous scientific and technological progress in the last 400 years – makes more sense than his critics would like to credit him with.

These examples reflect the “state of the art” currently reached. If we could further integrate the living (not only human) and a machine endowed with pseudo-living properties (such as evolutionary programs), we would be better positioned to achieve a semiotic machine in the proper sense of the expression, and thus we might expect anticipatory characteristics augmented by computation. Let us revisit the introductory hypothesis: the possibility of achieving a full record of an Xevent. We denoted the Xevent as object O without considering its condition.

Otherwise, the potential future event would grow and grow until the earthquake’s resources are exhausted. With this in mind, I suggest here that we are dealing with what physics has stubbornly rejected for the sake of homogeneity and determinism: the causa finalis as the necessary path of dynamic unfolding. 2 Anticipating Extreme Events 37 Fig. 9. The relevance of the post-extreme event time Aristotle distinguished among four categories of causation: material cause, formal cause, efficient cause, and final cause.

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