By David P. Auerswald
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Extra info for Disarmed Democracies: Domestic Institutions and the Use of Force
Example text
Overall, then, complicating our model does not produce dramatic changes in expected behavior by either presidents or prime ministers, at least when we correct for shortcomings in the amended model’s logic. Therefore, the analysis that follows applies the original rather than the amended version of the model. Agenda Control Domestic circumstances affect an executive’s decision to use force in a second way. The need to maintain of‹ce by maximizing the chances of international success forces the executive to be wary of situations where she does not have total control over the nation’s con›ict decisions.
For an executive accountable to the legislature, making a coercive diplomacy threat and then having that threat fail to achieve its objectives risks domestic sanctions from the legislature. Executives will respond in three ways. First, they will hesitate before making international threats. Coercive diplomacy success is never guaranteed. Executives should hesitate to begin such a risky venture unless absolutely necessitated by international events. International bluffs are especially risky in a domestic sense for executives accountable to their legislatures.
Normally, elites take a wait-and-see attitude to gauge the political rami‹cations of criticizing executive con›ict policies (Auerswald and Cowhey 1997). Yet opposition elites would almost certainly voice criticism to using force immediately before an election, diminishing or possibly reversing the rally effect, which is why executives are unlikely to attempt rallies immediately at that time. 9 In sum, executives should hesitate before using force during an election. This leads to my ‹rst hypothesis.