By Michael Reiter
This research is a revised model of my doctoral dissertation on the Economics division of the collage of Munich. i would like to take the chance to specific my gratitude to a few those who have helped me in my paintings. My maximum thank you visit the manager of this dissertation, Professor Claude Billinger. Bis rules have shaped the root of my paintings. Be completely sup ported it with a bunch of principles, feedback and encouragement. moreover, he supplied a stimulating study surroundings at SEMECON. This research do not need been attainable during this shape with no the aid of my current and previous colleagues at SEMECON. i'm indebted to Rudolf Kohne-Volland, Monika Sebold-Bender and Ulrich Woitek for supplying smooth ware and tips for the information research. Discussions with them and with Thilo Weser have helped me to take many hurdles, quite within the early phases of the undertaking. My honest thank you visit all of them. I had the chance to offer a former model of my progress version at a workshop of Professor Klaus Zimmermann. i need to thank the entire parti cipants for his or her beneficial reviews. I additionally recognize serious and positive reviews from an nameless referee. desk of Contents advent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 half I. method 1. value of Stylized proof. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . nine 1.1 obstacles of statistical checking out. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . nine 1.2 comparing fiscal versions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . eleven . . . . . . 2. additional Methodological concerns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . thirteen . . . . . .
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Extra resources for The Dynamics of Business Cycles: Stylized Facts, Economic Theory, Econometric Methodology and Applications
Example text
5. The spectra of wages, shown in plot c), differ between countries. Reliable conclusions cannot be drawn from this. These considerations lead to the following stylized facts: SF13: The spectra of price indices look very similar to those of their respective quantities. SF14: The spectra of domestic price indices look very similar to that of import prices. SF15: Interest rates are quite regular and resemble investment. Finally, I want to investigate how sensitive these results are to the choice of detrending technique.
From these differences, a linear trend was subtracted. This is necessary in order to get stationary time series, because many series exhibit strongly declining growth rates in the time period considered. g. Nelson and Plosser 1982). It is preferable to taking second differences, which greatly amplifies the noise in the series. 3 contain the results of the spectral analysis for GNP and its components and for residual demand (RD), which is defined as GNP minus fixed and inventory investment. 5). The tables are organised as follows: the second column indicates the type of detrending used.
3 This series is in constant prices of 1976. It differs considerably from later publications of the German statistical office, which are based on relative prices of 1980. It was therefore not possible to obtain a long series from 1950-1989. 4. Spectral estimates: long series of fixed investment Trend Period Peak P. Bandw. SNR IE 1950-78 HP100 Dil£. 031 5 Diff. 560 2 AR-order Germany Diff. USA IE 1950-90 IE 1950-78 HP100 Diff. GIE b 1889-1929 HP100 Diff. Iron consumption (Spiethoff) b Gross fixed investment (Kendrick) 36 4.